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煤價運價聯動 9月淡季不淡

       八月中下旬開始電廠為節約成本,故意放緩采購進程,意欲壓低價格,除了剛性需求外,基本不進行大規模補庫。本打算在910月用煤淡季進行常規補庫,但剛入九月,煤價便一改常態,不降反漲,現貨價格從月初的620/噸左右(5500大卡)一路飆升至730/噸(5500大卡)左右,給需求方來了一個措手不及。在煤價和運價聯動的作用下,海運費同步升高,據秦皇島煤炭網監測數據顯示,9月海運煤炭運價指數(OCFI)持續運行于千點以上的高位,高于往年同期水平,北方港口至南方主要接卸港煤炭運價高出往年近一倍,煤炭市場和航運市場一片繁榮

 

  分析認為,以下幾點是促使煤價不斷上漲的主要因素:

 

  1、發改委最低最高庫存制度指導意見提出燃煤電廠不低于20天存煤天數的要求,導致電廠增補庫存意愿增強,北上派船積極性大增,拉動船舶運力需求在淡季同步逆向增長,煤價和運價聯動特性體現無疑;

 

  2、國家重點會議和大秦線秋季集中修均在10月開展,煤炭生產安檢力度增大,貨源供給偏緊預期增強,下游恐慌性采購刺激上游煤炭價格不斷攀升,恐慌性采購買漲不買跌心態共同作用提振煤炭價格;

 

  3、環渤海港口錨地船舶數量屢創新高,持續運行于100艘左右高位,并于9月中旬創下2013年年底以來的新高。然而,由于港口貨源結構性短缺,船貨匹配度不佳,船等貨時間較長,導致運力積壓,市場可用運力周轉不足,促使運價不斷上漲,高于去年同期近一倍。

 

  即將進入雙節小長假,市場活躍度或多或少會受到一定影響。在國家加大保供應力度的背景下,煤炭鐵路調進出現明顯增量,港口庫存累積推升,秦港煤炭庫存已突破600萬噸,保供政策初見成效,也在一定程度上緩解了下游的恐慌采購壓力,對高位煤價和運價形成一定的壓制作用,港口離岸平倉價格漲勢放緩,海運費先于煤價出現觸頂回落。據了解,近日,已有部分小型貿易商擔心煤價觸頂下跌,開始著手出貨,貿易商心態的逐漸轉變,反映出市場后續看空預期的加重。

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